The convection has really fired up and expanded around the center of TD 18 this morning. Looks like we may have tropical storm Rita later today. Looks like a more W-NW or NW movement the next 36 hrs followed by a due west. It'll be interesting to see how much latitude the storm gains before being forced west by the strong ridge over the northern GOM. Will it be a hurricane in 48 hrs? This time of year and given the SSTs - probably. Not sure if its a done deal on the westward movement across the GOM since there are some hints that the TX high will retrograde west and a weakness will develop due to a trough coming into the SE states around Wednesday.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-ir4-loop.html