Random Chaos
(Weather Analyst)
Sun Sep 18 2005 01:37 PM
Re: 97L

T1.0 doesn't make a Tropical Wave a Tropical Depression for sure...so they might not classify it yet. I've seen systems make a 2.0 before being classified, and others classified at 1.0. There is more involved than simply Dvorak intensity, and I don't know what all of NHC's criteria are.

However, I'd expect 97L to be classified today...it's not looking so great on IR right now, but these things flux a lot. All the conditions are favorable...so an upgrade would definately not surprise me.

I'd also expect Rita to come out of TD18.

GFDL intensities are less insane today, now making moderate strength storms instead of super strength. Unfortunately the same can't be said for the Globals. CMC is still trying to make a monster in the Atlantic. UKMET is also making a pair of dangerous looking systems. GFS is keeping them more sane. NOGAPS has 18 tracking over Cuba and thus not developing much until it reemerges into the gulf. Both GFS and NOGAPS show 17-Philippe as the more major system.



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