Random Chaos
(Weather Analyst)
Sun Sep 18 2005 08:24 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Eighteen Forms East of the Bahamas

Here's those tracks you're talking about:

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_18.gif

BAM's not the best model..but it's not the worst either. Definately something to watch.

As for that partial eye wall and the windspeed (probably near 55-60kt now with 67kt flight level winds)...this thing's still a Tropical Storm. The pressure's only 1004mb. It "shouldn't" be showing any eyewall or winds anywhere near that high at that pressure. Hurricanes usually start down around 980mb in the Atlantic! Is this storm going to "break the rules" the way Katrina did and not do anything by the book? If so, we can throw the intensity models out the window and probably guess better...

--RC


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