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I think that once the local mets read Stewart's 11:00PM discussion on Rita that they might not be so low key. THIS ALL SUGGESTS THAT THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE EAST OF FLORIDA MAY NOT BE AS STRONG AS INDICATED IN THE MODEL FIELDS. AS SUCH...THERE MAY A NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE TRACKS IN THE 00Z MODEL RUNS. HOWEVER...WITH SUCH A LARGE AND STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE GULF COAST...RITA SHOULD GRADUALLY EVENTUALLY MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF AND INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL TRACK WAS SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MORE NORTHWARD INITIAL POSITION. THIS NORTHWARD SHIFT HAS REQUIRED THE PREVIOUS WATCHES FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA TO BE UPGRADED TO HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS. This is one that could surprise us all. Bill |