danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Mon Sep 19 2005 12:20 AM
TS Rita

Repost from last thread for Floridians and others on the Gulf Coast from Key West to Brownsville.

Based on Forecaster Stewart's Discussion of Rita.
The last paragraph is using heavy wording...this far in advance.
I would venture to sat at this point. If you live anywhere along the Gulf Coast and the Eastern FL coast as far North as Melbourne. Please pay special attention to all the NWS and NHC products. They Are the Official Watches and Warnings. Also watch for Hurricane Local Statements from your Local NWS office. They detail preparation and evacuation instructions.

Current HLS from NWS Miami and NWS KeyWest are less than 45 minutes old.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/index_hls3.shtml

Another interesting, and possibly significant note is found at Dr Vigh's website.
The 18Z early BAMS, BAMM and BAMD models, from the noon run today, placed Rita as far north as 27N at 90.0W.
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/store/early_AAL18_05091818.png
The 00Z early BAMS, BAMM, and BAMD models tonight now indicate Rita could be as far north as New Orleans. That's 30.0N/ 90.0W
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/store/early_AAL18_05091900.png

Note: these models are currently the northern most outliers. And they didn't perform well with Katrina at the 120 hour/ 5 day forecast.



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