I'm not all that impressed with the BAM series.

What does concern me significantly is that a number of other models are trending north and eastward in the early guidance, AND that the storm is moving north of west by more than forecast.

Small changes in track this far out translate into big changes in location for an impact down the road.

I'd pay very close attention to that ridge the next day or two, along with exactly where Rita comes across the straights. If she comes in close to or right over the Keys, I believe we will see a significant northward and eastward shift in the guidance, and places that we do not want to think about having potential trouble might get some.

I echo the sentiment that basically nobody in the gulf can ignore this system at the present time. She has all the elements in place to strengthen significantly and the strength of the ridge that was forecast earlier does not appear to be verifying.