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hey guys,
looks like Rita is gonna be a headache for a lot of people for some days ahead. Her organization is improving quite rapidly, with both the inner core consolidating more, and the larger circulation becoming more symetric and better defined. The course should see the centre track just south of the Florida mainland but probably straight across the Keys - i would say over Key West quite likely. With improving overall organization and an improving upper level environment Rita will likely be a hurricane later today. everyone in her path stay safe and prepare!
Best wishes
Absolutely! We all know - or should know - that any forecast beyond 3 days is far from an exact science. If Rita takes the north route through the cone, which it seems more of the models are forecasting as time goes on... it increases the threat to Louisiana, although the guidance still is concentrated on Texas. 24 hours ago the guidance was concentrated on Mexico, though. Another shift to the east and you've got a BIG problem.
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Re: Rita a hurricane by tonight?