Random Chaos
(Weather Analyst)
Mon Sep 19 2005 08:10 AM
Re: Rita a hurricane by tonight?

Time for a morning review of the models!

Rita:
GFDL is strengthening it rapidly again - strong cat 2 through strong cat 3 possible before it hits the Keys, then it tracks west with a northward jog in the western Gulf...and hits near Houston. Only shows minor fluctuations in strength after it enteres the Gulf.

CMC shows it devloping a broad, deep low that covers most of the gulf, but keeps it tracking to southern Texas.

GFS is pushing Rita even more eastward than GFDL, with a final landfall near the TX/LA border. The track, otherwise, is similar to the GFDL.

NOGAPS is staying south, bringing Rita into Texas near the Mexico border.

UKMET shows Rita developing a deep, tight low before making a sharp northward curve as it nears Texas, bringing final landfall near to Houston.

Philippe:
GFDL tracks it north, and is fairly well in line with the NHC guidance for both track and intensity.

CMC takes this storm on a very different track than the model consensus, pushing it west into the eastern Bahamas before showing any sort of northward jog. A worrisome scenario.

GFS is left of the NHC guidance, keeping Philippe even further into the Atlantic and no threat to Burmuda.

NOGAPS beings the worst case scenerio for Burmuda, with a near to direct hit with the eye. It stays well inside the NHC guidance envelope.

UKMET brings Philippe northward but curves it back east before it reaches Burmuda.

Invest 97L
CMC shows this storm forming and tracking northwest and slowly curving out to sea, with a northeast movement by the end of the forcast period.

No other models detect 97L on pressure graphs.

Models used
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/
CMC, GFDL, NOGAPS, and UKMET 00Z runs
GFS 06Z run

Remember, these are not official forcasts. See the NHC for official forcasts.



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