You know, I don't know what I was thinking...they should be sending the Katrina evacuees in TX to Miami, now, of course, not CA. It should be the standard policy to bus hurricane evacuees to somewhere else on the coastline that might still get hit during this very active season.

You notice Nagin didn't want those guys to come back; the city is broke and he asked for "business owners" to return!

OK the models are really clustering a little further south than Louisiana, and the NHC official track for the moment is even south of the clustering even after the 5am adjustment (and I haven't checked but the 11am is probably out by now), and they've had a very good track record this season; but certainly the standard advice remains true that everyone on the Gulf Coast needs to keep an eye on it, until it has passed north of their latitude. We're not going to know more specifics about landfall for another day or two, except that it seems apparent now that conditions again will be favorable for intensity to increase to major hurricane status, so we'll probably be looking at a Cat 3 and possibly a Cat 4 in the GOM (but probably not at landfall), and as with Katrina, she'll have to land somewhere.

EDIT -- See, from the discussion: "...most of the models have shifted farther north late in the forecast period over the western Gulf of Mexico...The official forecast is adjusted to the north or right over the Gulf...but not as far as the model concensus."

NHC discussion has it a weak Cat 3 hitting near Galveston in five days (Sat)...wait until Wed to see the 72hr. Plus by Wed aft/evng she should be hitting the loop current; I am guessing at about 85.5, 86.0W, and about 25N? So look for it to hit Cat 3 by say Wed night / Thurs am. Feeling clueless. I have no links at my new job...anyone care to post current info on loop current and whether or not it is still a large factor, why or why not; SSTs may be misleading because there will still likely be some cooler water underneath Katrina's path, if Rita goes further N than the current forecast track.