Last Dvorak numbers (~18Z) are 4.0 for Rita - that's borderline TS/Cat 1. With this latest bout of convection, we could easily see her Dvorak go up to a 4.5 or higher, and that would result in a definate Cat 1 at 11pm.

As for Lyons saying only a Cat 2 in the gulf...models aren't showing that - almost every one is hitting Cat 3 now - http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/intensity1.png - wonder where he pulled that number from? Perhaps he meant not more than a Cat 2 when it enters the gulf...that would make more sense.

The last recon on Rita was 2 hours ago - before this bloom of convection started. We need a new recon.

--RC