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Last Dvorak numbers (~18Z) are 4.0 for Rita - that's borderline TS/Cat 1. With this latest bout of convection, we could easily see her Dvorak go up to a 4.5 or higher, and that would result in a definate Cat 1 at 11pm.
As for Lyons saying only a Cat 2 in the gulf...models aren't showing that - almost every one is hitting Cat 3 now - http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/intensity1.png - wonder where he pulled that number from? Perhaps he meant not more than a Cat 2 when it enters the gulf...that would make more sense.
The last recon on Rita was 2 hours ago - before this bloom of convection started. We need a new recon.
--RC
I'm sure that's what he meant, if not what he said. The last bit of convection has the comma shape to it again, after a bit of a raggedness for a few hours, and maybe an eyewall forming? No eye yet but a dark spot in the upper left near the circulaton center. We'll soon (maybe a few hours) be able to track it better on radar - could be interesting to watch the development, similar to Ophelia.
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Re: Hurricane Warnings up for the Florida Keys