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Now unless pressure dropped considerably and they find max flt winds like 70kt, even with the improved presentation on satellite and Dvorak close to 4.5, I don't see hurricane strength. The only argument might be to get the message out to people earlier who might not be evacuating, since we can assume it will get to hurricane strength by the 5am full advisory, but they'll all be asleep by then.
I think it'll come at 2am since it didn't at 11pm... or possibly earlier if the recon continues and finds stronger winds, which would not surprise me. This has happened before - a strengthening trend in the wee hours of the morning when no one was awake... dangerous situation indeed.
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Re: Recon and Dvorak