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The NE side is where the strongest winds are going to be found. The SFMR tool that they have on-board the recon says that the surface winds are 60kt, so that's what we'll go with. Remember -- if you have measurements of something actually occurring at the surface, you always want to use those over mathematical/historical reduction factors from aloft. Also, follow radar and you can see the inner-core developing at a fairly good clip now, with an eye evident on 4:08UTC imagery. If this holds, which I see no reason why it won't at this point in time, I expect we'll see some steady intensification overnight. |