Clark
(Meteorologist)
Tue Sep 20 2005 04:27 AM
Re: wild predictions wanted!

Take a look at the sea surface height anomalies:

Pre-Katrina: http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hhc/watl/sha.watl.20050826.gif
Current: http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hhc/watl/sha.watl.20050919.gif

The areas of positive sea surface height anomalies are weaker and more spread out than before, albeit just barely so. They are located further north than they were, which given the expected track of the storm may keep it away from those eddies.

Also look at the hurricane heat content:

Pre-Katrina: http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hhc/watl/hh3.watl.20050826.gif
Current: http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hhc/watl/hh3.watl.20050919.gif

The erosion of the northern Gulf eddy is evident with a very small area of very high values further east of that location. I believe that the storm will pass south of this and through lower (but not negligible) areas of heat content. Overall, things are about where they should be for the Gulf for this time of year, which generally means that a major hurricane is possible, but not a monster like Katrina. I do feel that Rita passing over the central Gulf will likely keep anything forming in the SW Gulf/Bay of Campeche that heads toward the NE from becoming a very powerful storm (but again, this could be relative).



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