I'm intrigued by the occasional strange output that is sometimes generated in the NHC's strike probabilities. Example in the 11pm strike probabilities: Miami's overall percentage of Rita passing within 65 nm in the next 69 hours is 43%, which is comprised of 42% for the first 12 hours after issuance, 0% for the 24 hours after that, and then the anomoly: 1% for the 12-hour period between 8pm Wed. and 8am Thurs.

I assume this 1% chance of a "hit" that late is based on some strange model output, but it's hard for me to imagine what that scenario would look like given the current weather pattern. The most likely scenarios to produce that - both of which are nearly impossible given the current pattern - are one in which the storm stalls significantly, or another in which it sharply recurves once in the Gulf. An earlier run of one model - the CLIPER5, I believe [and hopefully I am correctly naming the model] - was a very big outlier, I believe showing a path across the upper Keys, or perhaps even the extreme SE Fla. peninsula, and then running more or less up the Florida west coast (and if this isn't clear to everyone, that scenario is incredibly unlikely; it was just one anomolous run of one model). I suppose a slight adjustment of that model, with an even sharper recurvature over SW Fla. or just offshore from there, could result in a slight chance of a Miami hit that far out from now, but that just seems like such a remote possibility - much less than 1%, I would imagine.

I'm basically just pointing out that 1% entry for anyone similarly curious about such anomolies, and to get any input from anyone who knows, or has a guess as to, where that specific one came from, i.e. on what strange and unlikely model scenario it was based.)

I realize there are much more important things to consider right now, but it's a little food for thought to keep an eye out for. There is at least one anomolous entry like that for several storms each year.

And probably a bit more important, current conditions down here in South Miami: it's absolutely beautiful outside; hopefully it will stay like this tomorrow, but of course it's likely to get worse. We've had sporadic rain: a few significant but short-lived downpours, but otherwise just light rain or none at all. We've had quite a few calm periods, but for the most part the wind has been blowing consistently in the 15-25 mph range - a beautiful breeze, keeping the heat index and/or actual temperature very comfortable - with a few gusts associated with quickly passing squalls that were probably in the 35-40 mph range. It's one of those nights that would be perfect for a walk or run if the thought of it weren't soured by the knowledge that the beautiful conditions are caused by something that's going to have an awful impact on a lot of people this week.

Best of luck to everyone potentially in the storm's path - Bahamas, Keys, extreme S. Fla., Cuba, Western/Central Gulf states, Mexico.