Brad in Miami
(Storm Tracker)
Tue Sep 20 2005 01:36 AM
Re: 11pm strike probability anomoly / South Miami conditions tonight

The 4% and 7% numbers are only for the 72 hours (actually, 69 hours) after issuance of the forecast package. Your percentage likely did not go up because of any change in the forecast, but instead because you're now more likely within 3 days of the storm, i.e. the storm is closer to you. At 5 am, your percentage could go up a little more without it signifiying any change in the models or forecast track.

2 other things: First, keep in mind that's a 7% possbility of the storm's center coming within 65 nautical miles of you, not of the center passing right over you. So in other words, if the NHC's computer guidance and forecasters suggest a 7% chance of the storm landfalling 65 nm due west of you, you would still have that 7% chance, even if the NHC predicts a 0% chance of it landfalling any closer than that to you. Second, that "cone" does not encompass every city with a remote possibility of close passage to the center. Some models, as well as the weather pattern that will likely exist in 2-3 days, support a slight chance of the storm heading within 65 nm of you, so therefore you still have that 7% probability.

Keep in mind 2 things: (1) 7% means it's very unlikely, so no need to worry too much; and (2) 7% means it isn't impossible, so make sure to worry just a little. And I'm kidding about making sure to worry, but definitely prepare hurricane supplies if you don't have them.



Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center