Brad in Miami
(Storm Tracker)
Tue Sep 20 2005 05:36 AM
Re: 11pm strike probability anomoly / South Miami conditions tonight

The 4% and 7% numbers are only for the 72 hours (actually, 69 hours) after issuance of the forecast package. Your percentage likely did not go up because of any change in the forecast, but instead because you're now more likely within 3 days of the storm, i.e. the storm is closer to you. At 5 am, your percentage could go up a little more without it signifiying any change in the models or forecast track.

2 other things: First, keep in mind that's a 7% possbility of the storm's center coming within 65 nautical miles of you, not of the center passing right over you. So in other words, if the NHC's computer guidance and forecasters suggest a 7% chance of the storm landfalling 65 nm due west of you, you would still have that 7% chance, even if the NHC predicts a 0% chance of it landfalling any closer than that to you. Second, that "cone" does not encompass every city with a remote possibility of close passage to the center. Some models, as well as the weather pattern that will likely exist in 2-3 days, support a slight chance of the storm heading within 65 nm of you, so therefore you still have that 7% probability.

Keep in mind 2 things: (1) 7% means it's very unlikely, so no need to worry too much; and (2) 7% means it isn't impossible, so make sure to worry just a little. And I'm kidding about making sure to worry, but definitely prepare hurricane supplies if you don't have them.



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