| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Sep 20 2005 10:39 AM |
Re: Hurricane Warnings up for the Florida Keys
|
Quote:
As for Rita, I woke up this am expecting some real serious overnight intensification and found none, as well as continued movement that should take the worst of the weather thru the Straits rather than over the Keys. Good chance for the Keys to "dodge the bullet" on this one (but then again that's what we thought about NOLA around mid-afternoon on 8/29).
Watching the short range radar... Key West appears to be headed for nasty weather in the next few hours. The mainland will probably dodge the bullet, but the Keys, I wouldn't say a "good chance" of it... depends upon the wobbles at the time, probably. My best estimate is that Key West gets hurricane fortce gusts, if not sustained winds.
As for lack of strengthening... the difference between 73 mph winds and 74 mph winds isn't really significant. Since the NHC only reports wind speeds at 5 knot increments, the winds could be anywhere from 58 - 62 knots and they would call it 60 (70 mph), I think. The radar presentation looks like there is an eyewall on the north side which is what Key West will get.