Quote:

---

Quote:

---

. The mainland will probably dodge the bullet, but the Keys, I wouldn't say a "good chance" of it... depends upon the wobbles at the time, probably. My best estimate is that Key West gets hurricane fortce gusts, if not sustained winds.

---

Maybe "good chance" not the best choice of phrase, but compared to yesterday's intensity forecasts of possible Cat 2 on top of Key West, a Cat 1 center passing over the straits rather than the island, even with some NE "eyewall" involvement, probably won't give them much more than they had with Katrina, which was underforecast for them. Hopefully, Key West will not see much more than what they saw three weeks ago.