12 Z GFS takes a more northerly route now and at day 5 has SW of Beaumont, and kind of stalling it there briefly. On another note, and as noted in the 11am discussion, Phillipe is moving to the NW now, with an exposed LCC. A shift further to the west could occur with the next advisory, and could get interesting in a few days as a weakened system will submit to lower level steering. The NAM and GFS imply this on 12Z as they should energy coming out of Phillipe to the SW, as the mainlow heads north. It could also be the swirl located to the NNE of the Leewards that is moving west. Think someone may not be done with phillipe just yet :?: Cheers!!