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I don't really like the wording in the Discussion. I know they are telling us what they are seeing. But Rita is still in the backyard of many along the Northern Gulf Coast. Here is an excerpt from the discussion. HURRICANE RITA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT WED SEP 21 2005 (edited~danielw) ...THE RECONNAISSANCE MISSION SCHEDULED FOR THIS MORNING WAS SCRUBBED DUE TO ELECTRONICS PROBLEMS ON MULTIPLE AIRCRAFT. HOWEVER...BEFORE THE EYE WENT OUT OF RANGE OF THE VELOCITY DATA FROM THE KEY WEST WSR-88D...WINDS OF 100-115 KT WERE SEEN AT BETWEEN 9000-13000 FT... ...THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275-280 DEGREES AT 12 KT. RITA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE GENERALLY WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 36 HR OR SO ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE STRONG DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. BEYOND THAT TIME...THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE RIDGE TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD...ALLOWING A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION. THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT ON THIS RUN...AS THE GFS HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD FROM ITS PREVIOUS FORECAST...WHILE THE NOGAPS AND GFDN HAVE SHIFTED NORTHWARD FROM THEIR SOUTH TEXAS LANDFALL. THE FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS MODELS AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE...BEING NUDGED SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK DURING THE FIRST 48-72 HR AND SLIGHTLY WESTWARD THEREAFTER WITH A LANDFALL ON THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST IN JUST OVER 72 HR. HOWEVER...THESE CHANGES ARE IN THE NOISE LEVEL.... http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/210843.shtml (note:Electronic problems plagued the weather services last night. A computer problem prevented the airport METARs from being fed into one of the main computer systems. As above, NHC said they had multiple electronics problems on multiple aircraft. ? Was there a solar flare last night??~danielw) |