This "conservative" wind speed estimation by the NHC is unnerving. When the guidance all shows that you have a 115kt storm on your hands, and the satellite imagery is bordering on superstorm (cat 5)... you set the intensity at 105kts? What the flub!?!? Granted, the discussion admits to the 105kts being conservative - most people don't know enough to read the discussion. They see "120 mph", and think "well, it's not to cat 4 yet, maybe it won't get there" (even though the NHC forecast 12 hours ago called for cat 4 intensity at 2pm this afternoon, not 4am). Stinks that it's out of Key West radar now basically... staged evacuations in an area that I would have considered well inland in Galveston (almost to the metro Houston area, from the map they showed?).

I'd ask if FEMA can handle this, but I know the answer. Really have to feel for the poor people in New Orleans who road a bus to what they thought was safety in Houston... and pray this thing doesn't make a hard right turn. I know, there's nothing to make it turn that way, but I'vve seen very odd things happen in the central GOM at times.

ETA: My guess, cat 5 by sunset. Who knows from there!

ETA2: From THE WEATHER CHANNEL... They're evacuating the Astrodome. Not shocking, but... *shakes head*...

ETA3: Stadium effect on IR now.. which isn't characteristic of a Cat 3, that I've ever seen. NW edge of convection is a tad ragged at the very edge, but I think that's just because the core is intensifying. We've got black back on the IR in the west and NW eyewall.

ETA3: and over 6 hours with no recon due to Gremlins. Ya think someone is trying to tell us something?
When is the next plane due into our storm of the week?