| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 12:01 PM |
Re: Lake Ponchartrain and New Orleans
|
Quote:
OK - so 32mb drop in 24 hours (yest this time pressure was 988mb and now 956mb) is explosive deepening. This is what Katrina would have done the first day out of FL, if she had not encountered the difficulties with dry air. Symmetry looks very good on sat and looking at the 10:15Z and she looks very strong,
Uh, I hate to be the bearer of horrific news, but the pressure is estimated to be 948. That's a FORTY MB drop in 24 hours (not sure when the 988 was, if it was at 5am or 8am ET, but in either case... it's a HUGE drop!)... accompanied by a satellite image that we might not find comprehensible if we had not seen the exact same imagery 3 1/2 weeks ago with Katrina.
On the bright side... the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season OFFICIALLY ends November 30. That's only 2 1/2 more months of potential pure H****.
UPDATE: Newest IR imagery shows an EWRC - I think. The really nasty (black) on the northern eyewall has been replaced by much less threatening dark orange (which is less intense than even the bright red that covers much of the central dense overcast). Impossible to tell what this will bring, I think... but it's a sign that the blasted thing may not strengthen to a Cat 5 in the next three hours, at least.
UPDATE2: EWRC may have been premature on my part. The very next IR image shows the bright red returning to the northern eyewall. Eye looks a tad ragged (almost binocular-like).. could be shrinking... bad bad bad.