there's been a lot of posts lately that poo-pooed the idea another cat 5 could form. But what perhaps missed their thinking was that the energy levels in the Gulf of Mexico may have been far from expended..

Rick, we know the energy is there, just not how much of it and what the storm can do with it. It's a crapshoot, really, given Katrina's passage and highlights how much we still don't know about intensity forecasting. The NHC has generally been below most others' calls for the storm thus far, which isn't a bad thing but does highlight their conservative nature and wanting to wait for actual data before upgrading a storm (which is what a certain member of the media always screams for but convieniently ignores when it doesn't prove his point). -Clark

since Katrina, we've had NO rain in Mobile...further, the humidity and heat index has been 105-110...August like stuff.

the weather this morning was less humid. Rita is sucking the moisture and heat into her llc....which means that we will have beautiful weather while she slides south of us, and on to happless Texas. I don't think New Orleans will be affected. However, if the forward speed slows...then that will be a harbinger of a change in direction.

things change...and so will the projected landfall.....she might just stay west....or could hook toward Louisiana...
who knows?...but the NHC does an admirable job of forecasting, I think.