all kinds of crazy crap on the board today. just keep in mind that katrina maxed out close in to the coast, and we're probably 60hrs from landfall... so the storm will have plenty of time to go through all sorts of eyewall cycles and probably end up in the 3/4 range. the heat content in the western gulf is high, but not nearly as high as what it's getting right now. now, will the storm have a large cumulative surge and really large wind field? yeah, probably. i will address some of the ideas i've seen floating around that look erroneous, though.
don't think the killing potential of this storm will be anywhere near katrina. people have had a good dose of coverage on that storm and don't want to deal with a similar situation themselves. being stuck in a major disaster zone is no fun, and even if there's someone foolhardy enough to want to experience the storm, probably not too many folks want to deal w/ the aftermath.
official track is right into matagorda bay, which is sort of a 'gap' in real estate and damage value potential. up the coast near houston the potential is a lot higher.. down the coast near corpus it's higher. the stretch between has victoria and some smaller towns, but not more than a couple hundred thousand people that can be affected the worst. my landfall point is closer to houston/galveston, so hope i'm wrong. i'm sure port lavaca and matagorda residents aren't fond of my preference, but it's really better overall if the storm doesn't directly impact houston.
the gfs and euro are slowing the inland progression of the storm now. i'm not sure how that will verify, but it's a multiple-run thing now. all of east texas and the arklatex region would be in for tremendous rainfall were this to occur... it's a worst-case post-landfall scenario.
hearing joe b comment on this possibly being the strongest hurricane to hit tx.. it would have to beat the 1880 indianola storm which was borderline or possibly a cat 5. i don't suspect it will be that strong. closer to carla, possibly a little bit weaker, seems more feasible. i don't think texas coastal waters will support a cat 5, and the storm will probably be weakening when it comes in, unless it's on the upswing of an eyewall cycle.
HF 1705z21september