Clark
(Meteorologist)
Wed Sep 21 2005 06:31 PM
Re: vortex message

Not sure, but I think they are waiting for a really good fix before either sending out a special advisory package or just waiting for the 2pm package anyway. Flight-level winds are up there; I've seen obs of both 150kt and 152kt -- and as you noted, the pressure is down there with 928mb reported but with 35kt surface winds (120deg winds = NNE of the center). I'd estimate surface pressure at 925mb with surface winds likely to ramp up shortly in conjunction with the increasing flight-level winds. Height of the 700mb surface is at 2488m -- pretty low and abour 45m lower than the vortex message reported. Unfortunately, we may have yet another cat. 5 storm on our hands in the Gulf -- still not nearly as strong as Katrina, but very powerful nonetheless.

Added: typed this awhile ago before sending...920mb, probably 1-2mb lower than that given ~20-25kt at the surface, with 153kt FL. On the way to cat. 5.



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