I've been watching this thing for the last couple of days, and last night before the 10:00 update came out my analysis pinpointed 90.04 west as my "best guess" for where she will hit, which is the far western edge of Galveston, with an almost-due-north motion at that time.

This was based on what I expect to see happen with the ridge, which should move northeast, and the location of the weakness into which Rita will turn. My view on verification is that the crossing point for 25N should occur at 90W - if it happens before, then she may come in somewhat east, if after, somewhat west.

This assumes no major earth-shattering changes in the steering flow - I see no reason to expect there will be any - the upper level pattern appears pretty well behaved.

I know this is significantly east of the NHC consensus, but there is some model support for this - the GFS has it pegged a bit east of there. The other models have tended to cluster west, but not very far.

Were I in Galveston or anywhere low in Houston or subject to surge I would be out of there right now, with my entire wardrobe and anything I wanted to keep in my car/truck with me - not just a couple of days worth of clothes and a few hundred bucks.

At the same time I would not let me guard down all the way to Corpus, and perhaps beyond. This thing is a monster, both in terms of windspeed AND size.

Katrina produced significant surge effects here near Destin and we were ~200+ miles from where it went in! This storm has the potential to be even worse - and certain on par with her in terms of destructive power at landfall.

The last few fixes tend to support a somewhat north-of-west motion, but the wobbling still puts her "up the middle" of hte NHC's forecast track. We shall see if the last few fixes are a trend - or just another wobble....

Be careful folks.....