This is my take on all the NW bashing, the SAT Infrared Loops dictate a NW movement along the forecasted track if you plot the NHC points. I beleive the NHC does not want to say it for certain unless an extreme Northerly turn happens when the ridge weakens or I think Rita is having an effect on that ridge and may be pushing it out of her way. Do you see the concern if it did turn to the NW. The residents along LA to N.O would again be under the gun. But the NHC is sticking to their track for now.
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Re: ridging to the north