We all like to look at the wobbles we see in the satellite images and think they represent a long term change. We just have to be a little patient and see. The timing of the weakening of high pressure north of the storm, the speed of forward motion of Rita and how quickly the next trough drifts east will determine the outcome. And yes the latest models look like the storm may be towards the right (North ) of the guidance.

Weakening is a tougher question - eyewall replacement doesn't necessarily mean the overall storm energy is decreased as the wind field can expand - But as the storm turns more northward the protected environment over the warmest gulf waters with an upper level anti-cyclone will slowly be lost - I would guess a scenario similar to Katrina - a devastating major hurricane but prob not Cat 5 at landfall