Random Chaos
(Weather Analyst)
Thu Sep 22 2005 12:59 AM
Re: Anything to weaken Rita?

1. I am seeing a WNW to NW movement now on IR, and recon definately shows a long term WNW movement. I think she's starting to turn, cutting a path to the east of the high pressure. If you look at the CMISS steering currents, it is clear she is east of the high, and she's ignoring its steering currents that should be pushing her SW, and that means cutting north between the UL high over TX and the UL high over FL.

Steering currents: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm6.html

THESE ARE ALL STRONGLY IF STATEMENTS. No models are showing what I'm talking about, but the steering currents are clearly present. She has deepened so much in such little time that the steering currents that the models based her track on may no longer be valid.

2: IF she does cut north, the TX high will push her east, making landfall even toward the FL panhandle possible. If you are anywhere along the gulf I would watch this thing CLOSELY!

3: IF she does cut north, it will keep her over warmer waters longer, as long as she isn't pushed too far east. That could cause her to maintain, or increase, intensity. The warmest deep waters in the gulf are just to her north now.



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