Well, like I said - I'm not freaking out - yet.

I have no reason to believe that the Panhandle is "under the gun" on this one. But - it appeared for the last 24 hours that my own workup - showing a bullseye on Galveston - was not jiving with the NHC. I have some friends in that general area and while they were expecting a storm, they did not have the urgency to get out - even though they're being told to.

I told them where I thought it was going. They said they'd buy more beer. I told them to put the beer in the truck along with all their valuables, papers, and wardrobe and get the @!@$#!@ out! Drink the beer in a hotel room - 200 or more miles inland!

Hopefully they'll listen.... to me, to official requests and evac orders, to the NHC.....

There are no real good solutions on the table for this thing going in right now. I personally think the western edge of my expected impact area still hoses Galveston badly, while the eastern edge probably puts enough rain and surge into NO to cause trouble there. I'm not buying a further westward/southward impact than that at this point, and I don't see an impact east of NO unless something really wild was to happen with the high over Texas (for which there is NO model support)... but I could be wrong!