| Ron Basso |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 22 2005 12:40 PM |
|
Re: theoretically
|
Quote:
I think it's impossible to exactly predict where the hurricane will end up. it's a guess...and educated one...but a guess.
Rita has slowed to 9 mph forward speed...indicative of pushing against the high....now that she is as north as she is west...she'll roll off the high eastward.....natural coriolis forces pulling her north are also pushing her west. since she has now hit the nw trajectory....the nnw, n , nne are all next.
imho
If you take a look at the upper air pattern over the last several days you'll see that the hugh High over TX has weakened considerably and the center actually shifted NW into North-Central TX. Now, there is a weakness over the FL panhandle between the weakened TX high and a building high just east of FL. This eastern high looks to be getting stronger and building to the S & SW of the storm. It looks like Rita is entering a Col region (area of weak steering flow) between the two centers of high pressure. There may be even more slowing of forward speed then we've already seen over the last 24 hours. The high over TX is forecast to move eastward and allow Rita to slide around the west side. But so far, that hasn't happened yet.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/movies/wg8dlm6/wg8dlm6java.html