whenever we've got one of these well-defined super hurricanes you can always see the eye movement very well, and the normal wishy-washy not-straight track they take is more apparent. rita has thus far behaved pretty normally, oscillating right and left, but mostly right. if you look at the overall track errors there pretty low and pretty consistently to the left... but not a whole lot. this raises the threat level in western louisiana, with the highest probability impact zone being closer to the tx/la border now.. but new orleans is not under any greater threat. the storm will have passed their longitude this afternoon.
fyi, even though a hit east of houston will reduce their damage potential, beaumont takes up the slack. there's also more oil-related infrastructure to break over there. the trends are more of a consolation for houston, but worse for other folks.
it's morbid good news, but the nhc forecast track is likely too strong... 3/4 borderline landfall is still where i'd keep my stock. point will remain at sargent, as guidance has already been on either side, and may just shift right back.
HF 1355z22september