Terra
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Sep 22 2005 10:45 AM
The Cone...

You know... it's funny (not necessarily in a good sense, however) to talk to people about their perceptions of a storm's impending danger. A couple days ago, when Rita was still a tropical storm (for what seemed forever before the sudden explosion), most of Louisiana, including New Orleans, was in the 'cone.' The reason this area was in the cone was because the storm was very far away and the cone grows dramatically with distance from landfall... all pretty reasonable. Anyway, when I talked to people in my area, they were all pretty concerned about NO taking damage from Rita...

Progress forward a couple of days.... New Orleans is no longer in the cone, because the storm is closer to its landfall, and the 'error' is more 'certain'. However, the storm forecast is (as we have been discussing all morning) tracking more east, and is already east of that new forecast track. That worries me because I can think outside the cone... (well, it's a rain thing for me... drainage ditches are blocked with debris, rain will make me flood). Again, I talk to people and the same people who were freaking out when we were in the tropical storm's cone a few days ago, have no concern whatsoever about NO having any problems due to this storm...

Interesting... but, certainly not comforting...



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