bobbutts
(Weather Hobbyist)
Thu Sep 22 2005 02:56 PM
Re: east of where it should be by 60 miles

Looks to me like she's been trending on the east edge of every cone they put out even when the cone shifts east. Sometimes I wish the experts would use thier eyes and climatology instead of outdated NHC cones and computer models that for whatever reason are not being accurate. I know that following each wobble is not going to yield accuracy, but it appear that often very persistant trends are ignored or discounted. I guess we'll see at 11 what the new cone is and how this plays out. I have no idea where it's going to end up and I'm glad it's not my job to try and guess that. The NHC did such an accurate job forecasting Katrina that many may expect them to nail every storm now. These things are still very complex and error is to be expected days ahead.


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