Rick's prediction is just what I've been getting, as a rank amateur using a seat-of-the pants-method. I suspect he's doing something similar.

Look at the loop http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html with trop fcst pts turned on.

Over the last day, every time the eye has got to the next forecast point it has been significantly east. Then the track is shifted east to match. Then again the eye arrives east of the next point and the track is shifted again. If just repeat this simple procedure-- reproducing this trends of trend into the future you get the eastern eyewall unnervingly close to NO.

Of course this may be meaningless. But sometime such simple pattern exposes flaws in more complex models.

And I have no anti-NO bias. It is may favorite American city and Houston is one of my least.