Afternoon all.

Significant change in forecast track in 10am advis, as alluded to in previous advis, sparing Houston and Galveston the worst of the storm -- not a big surprise as the WNW trend becoming NW has not averaged out to a western movement for the last 18 hrs. Reminds me of the moment several days before landfall when Katrina's track was shifted 150mi to the west. Have been busy at work and have not had a chance to look at any posts. My mother in MS called wanting to know some information on the storm; I told her to keep a close eye on the local TV weather reports for surge and tide numbers in her area. Luckily all the houses in that area that could be affected by higher water, even between say 4-8 feet, have already been flooded and no one is living in them.

Well the trend for any future track changes appears to be to the east, not the west; looking bad for the southern LA coastline; Port Authur and points east.

Rita has kept growing in size the last 36 hours, and while not quite as large as Katrina, does still have a very large windfield, so the effect of the storm to the east will be felt over a large coastal area.

I have a couple of met questions. Will track changes take Rita over that warm eddy of the loop current (the one to the west of the deeper eddy south of NOLA)? If so, would this timing be in conjunction with completion of the ERC? Is the track change due to a weakness in the ridge? Referring to Ron Basso's post earlier this am, is this starting to become a track between the two highs, or is it still following along the high above TX/OK?

Looking forward to next met blog or met posts.