and I suppose deservedly so.

now, back to my observations...consistent with most everyone.

it will be interesting to see if Rita starts a more nnw direction....in the next 6 hours we shall see. She is definitely going nw....no doubt about it. and the projected direction by the NHC was more on a wnw..

not splitting hairs....but consider that a 15 degree change in direction is HUGE when you are 500 miles away.

and IF the percieved point that we are working with...(the NHC's plotted point)....then let's work with it. All I am doing is noticing a continuing trend east of the track. And even after the adjustment....Rita went east again..and this time even more than earlier today. I still believe a New Orleans hit is possible...and if I get put on probation....whatever.

my current thinking is Rita will come within 75 miles of New Orleans...(west of the city)...and that is subject to change...as I've had to do since this morning..when I figured a Galveston/Houston hit...

I don't hang on to old ideas of where she will go...when the eye obviously is going elsewhere....ADJUST is what I do....

the NHC will in about two more hours.