way things are looking today, west of houston isn't going to work out. there's still model guidance taking it over there, but the consensus has shifted and the storm has continued to trend right of forecast track. so the folks who've been agitating for western louisiana are getting more and more credible. cameron and vermillion parishes make up the western third of the coast, and both are low, swampy, and sparsely populated.. a nice buffer for populated areas unless you happen to live there. lake charles is inland, with lafayette/new iberia further to the east. in terms of affecting large numbers of people with its worst winds/surge, between the sabine river and marsh island isn't a bad place for the hurricane to go. certainly not as much to break as near the upper texas coast.
anyhow, many have noted this stuff: the deep convection has picked back up with rita, which suggests that it's made it through that morning eyewall cycle and will restrengthen a little. it may cross back to 5 or hover in upper 4 territory, but with each eyewall cycle the storm should return to a lower state than its insanely strong status overnight. thus the 3/4 range of prediction for landfall. if i can't get my location right (from four days out) i can at least get the intensity. surge will be on the high side of whatever the impact category is... and pretty much all the forecast models are slowing the storm down near the arklatex region, so expect a tremendous inland rainfall event. storm may end up drifting southward or southwestward early next week. it isn't going to affect new orleans very badly, but as it's running closer their rainfall/persistent low surge could complicate things. the decision to hold off on letting people back in was a good one.
elsewhere it has also been noted how philippe is becoming involved with a hybrid-looking complex system. philippe itself is actually still coherent, but the large upper low appears to be acquiring a surface reflection... and will probably compete with the tropical system. area of disturbed weather southeast of this region near 12/49 is looking a little better today... may merit TWO mention later. new wave off africa looks surprisingly good for late september and merits watching as well.
synoptic pattern for the coming week-2 weeks is tough to pin down right now. the ensembles have been changing their minds a good bit from day to day--looks like an early fall transition will be under way. the threat for another system in the eastern caribbean may be offset by the persisting weakness in the central atlantic. some evidence that a strong ridge will evolve near/off the east coast in the wake of one of these canadian highs, so there is still a disconnected pattern signal supporting a system near the east coast/caribbean in early october. not confident on the changes, though.
HF 2016z22september