modeleste
(Verified CFHC User)
Thu Sep 22 2005 04:39 PM
Re: Left out Info...

Quote:

Rita IS tracking right of the forecast track, but it is also PARALLELING it at the moment




What I've been seeing is different. It is simple to see using the Trop Fcst Pts here: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/rgb-loop.html

Each time the center has passed one of the marked points it has passed to the east of it.

The mark and the track are then moved east so that that mark has been passed over-- exactly-- by the eye.

By the time the eye gets to the next mark it is again east of it and the track is moved again. I've been watching this since yesterday,

The storm route almost approaches a spiral tightening to the right.

Thus the movement of forecast landfall from south of Galveston to well north.

However if the trend continues (I don't have any idea what is causing it, I'm just looking at it as a trend) the forecast landfall laggs to the west and the route will
continue to tighten toward the right.