tpratch
(Moderator)
Thu Sep 22 2005 05:02 PM
Re: forecast track

Quote:

i see that the weakening has indeed continued, although to me it seems a bit odd for both the wind and the pressure to drop at the same time



Actually in light of the ERC, it makes some sense.

The winds are dropping because the ERC disrupts the flow of the highest velocity winds surrounding the eyewall. That trend continues until the storm regains organization...

Now that the ERC has ended and the eyewall is closed off, pressure has normalized and as the new wall gets moving, you'll see the winds pick back up and the pressure go even further down (for now).

I think she has a shot at <900mb and 180+mph sustained winds again. But she's going to have to use every trick in the book to see that - and do so while she's over the eddy.


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