typhoon_tip
(Meteorologist)
Thu Sep 22 2005 09:30 PM
Re: forecast track

Not that all hurricanes must be well behaved, but it does seem correct logic calls for winds to increase. The reason I say this is because:
a) 913mb pressure is quite a low value for a wind of 145mph.
b) There simply is no denying, satellite representation in the IR has increased CDO in both size and amount of colder clouds now nicely circular during the day *(watch, no sooner do I click submit and this will reverse - but you get the point)*

...In the waning phases of EWRC, the new eyewall begins to contract. In general the mechanics of how and when eyewall cycles occur is as you know, not well understodd. But, essentially, even in hurricanes balancing pressure gradient force is necessary. In lay-person's terms, the surrounding atmosphere is exerting a pressure rushing inward to fill the void of a region that is about 100mb less than the ambient pressure field amid Rita's surroundings. The new eyewall after cyclic change is unstably too far from the eye because the angular velocity of the rotating column is not sufficient to balance this ambient pressure gradient force - that's what causes the contraction...

...Enter the ice skater... As the arms and legs assume a virtical posture the rate of rotion spins up in velocity.
In the end, having a core pressure of 913mb has to rise, or the winds have to increase, and it is likely that with deeper convection currently blossoming amid the CDO, it will be the winds that do the compensating...



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