| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Sep 22 2005 11:47 PM |
Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf
|
Quote:
Tip (a nice historical reference btw) or others, I've been out of the loop for a most of today and I have to say this thing gets more interesting all the time. As of early this morning, I expected a drop in intensity, and then I looked at the IR and the eye and the central pressure at 11pm.. This must be a "historical" freak. The eye looks only a little less perfect than last night. The pressure, given ERC and cold water and dry air and milder waters, still looks very impressive. Anyone want to venture a theory explaining these various factors? Has this storm shown how statistically driven models necessarily falter when confronted by an "outlier?"
...Not that it "should" carry much weight to say this but Rita's eye, IR appears to be "wobbling" (getting sick of that word) NW again.
...There is one difference here, however. The eye is still clearly defined, but has apparently shrunk.... Hmm, they did say in the 11pm that the inner eyewall was finally giving up and the outer eyewall was beginning to contract. Interesting if someone can verify these observations as related?? I'll tell yeah what, I apologize if I seem to be wavering over this but it will definitely be interesting to note the next vortex message for wind...
...As to your questions regarding anomalous behavior, I'm not sure about the cause, but I am sure about the method. When this EWRC began, the winds came down and the pressure has for all intents and purposes been fairly consistently low (notwithstanding these slight rises this evening). Essentially I pose the supposition that Rita has never actually really weakened, rather, is taking an unusually long time to actually replace her rings. Any thoughts??