Well, it looks as if the downgrade to a Cat 3 may have been premature. No sooner did they downgrade when recon found 129kt winds which would correlate to 135 at the surface. The central pressure has actually dropped a tad and the satellite presentation has DRAMATICALLY improved in the past 3 hours. The earlier dry-air intrusion observed has since been mixed out and the convection has blossomed with a much larger CDO with colder cloud tops.

Even the 5pm discussion hints at the fact that Rita may be intensifying. They stated that objective T-Numbers have started to come up, indicating winds are stronger than the quoted 125mph in the latest advisory. As usual, the NHC is taking the conservative road, stating that they are waiting for a trend before officially declaring Rita as a stronger hurricane.

I think they are trying to avoid the negative emotional impact of declaring Rita as once again attaining Cat 4 status unless absolutely necessary.

--Lou