Thunderbird12
(Meteorologist)
Fri Sep 23 2005 09:21 PM
Re: Rita's Intensity

Rita is just struggling to hold its own at the moment. Latest pressure is up slightly to 931mb. The eyewall appears to be almost half open. Unless it can close off the eyewall, it will struggle to maintain its current intensity. FL winds still indicate 110-115 knots at the surface, but the dropsondes I have seen do not support that intensity.

There is still a tremendous amount of outflow, but the outflow pattern is no longer as symmetric as it was... it is expanding rapidly to the north while becoming slightly restricted to the SW. It looks like upper-level SW winds are going to be impinging on the the system soon. The window for strengthening may be about over. The strong outflow still would support some intensification, but there needs to be an increase in organization of the eyewall for that to occur. Time is running out for that.



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