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Rita continues to maintain a strong northern eyewall, but is unable to close it. Must be something to do with the inner core dynamics, since you can almost see convective elements on radar disappearing in the southern half of the storm and re-emerging in the northern half.

Pressure falls the last hour: Lake Charles 2.1 mb (down to 991.4 mb), Beaumont 2.0 mb (down to 992.5 mb), Galveston 1.5 mb (down to 995.4 mb).

Some of the 18Z models suggested a more westward turn, which is probably why some of the media have picked up on that. There have been some wobbles, but no signicant deviation from the track evdient on radar so far.

Regarding the hypothetical landfall scenario, that is an interesting question, but it is highly unlikely that any storm surge which was brought inland would help to temporarily keep the storm from weakening after landfall. There would likely still be too much surrounding terrain that is not inundated.

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Even the 23z RUC had a slow movement to the west begining soon. I don't know a lot about that model but thats at least three that I've seen that seem to slow it and turn to the west.

A couple of other observations: The 0045z ir show a ring of very cold cloud tops almost completely around the center, and the latest radar loop from Houston seems to show the center elongated SE-NW.

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