center is inland near jasper, tx right now. should be up near marshall as a a tropical storm late this afternoon, and weakening to a depression near texarkana overnight. system keeps moving and the models stalling/looping have shifted more eastward, so now it's a slow east jog to ms. the potential for it to move back out into the gulf is advertised by some models, but their newer reluctance to turn it back has me thinking it's inland to stay. one note is how the media has already reported that new orleans got off better than expected... that they hardly got the rain they'd expected. of course, anybody up on current events will notice that rita is still dumping a lot of rain and should get new orleans wet intermittently through the next few days. the tandem surge/heavy rainfall threat appears low, so they're right in at least that respect... but the threat of more trouble for new orleans hasn't gone away. they called the storm a bust just a little early on august 29th; hopefully they aren't going to repeat the mistake less than a month later.
kinda wondering if philippe will be back. the swirl from it has been looped around inside the broader low that 'absorbed' it, but it's about as absorbed as a rock would be in your stomach. if it serves as the main cell around which a tropical system generates out there, i'd consider it a regeneration of philippe.. though not sure what the nhc would call it. whole mess is moving northeast now.
wave out near 33w appears to be the only other game in town. it won't develop anything for a couple more days if at all, so we're probably down to tracking a decaying rita for the weekend. enjoy the peace and quiet.. mjo is switched 'on' right now and as soon as the basin shear ticks down a notch in places we'll see some more action.
HF 1629z24september

ssd has a too weak rating on the 33w wave/low. still probably won't do anyting before monday. -HF