rita may have been the last shot of the month. if anything else does develop it won't be until the middle or more likely late in the week. when things do liven back up it'll be trouble again, though.
first off rita is moving a lot faster than i'd expected... or the models were predicting just 24 hr ago. the shortwave has the storm right now, and may deposit it to drift further east, or more likely will just take it out off the northeast coast in a couple days as part of a front. it's keeping the rainfall totals down at sane levels and has actually made rita a boon inland as it's moistened areas that were suffering from drought.
the philippe/98L hybrid system is getting carried off and looking extratropical with time. the models were showing a piece escaping, but it looks like most everything that could develop is going out and leaving a little wake trough behind. the system near 35w continues to be sheared and has little/no model support to develop now.. most take it wnw/nw into the weakness in the ridge east of bermuda and lose it.
globals are getting a little more concerned for a mid/late week evolution in the nw caribbean. euro has been most consistent showing something there, while gfs has moved its feature over that way now, and most of the others are showing lower pressure there but no system. however, the pattern-pulse is setting up to want to kick something off there, with a fairly consistent strengthening of the ridge near the east coast, wedging inland next weekend into the week after. here's how i see the possibilites:
1) the system develops in the middle of the week and pushes more to the n, gets caught on the trough going by prior to the ridge buiding in, and goes out across florida and/or gets trapped off the east coast.
2) the system develops more slowly and misses the connection, drifts up into the gulf and turns w as the ridge builds above it. eventual threat to n mexico/s texas in 10 days or so.
3) the system develops very slowly and drifts into mexico, or remains quasi stationary.
4) the system doesn't develop.
the pattern pulse may try to kick off another system further east as well, as gfs is showing the front system winking out over the gulf (not likely under the paired upper ridge it's showing) and another brewing up right where it was a few days earlier. the culp for this first system is probably the wave currently in the se caribbean. it'll be near jamaica and probably looking more prominent in 3 days time or so. gfs is also showing more action out near the cv islands, but none of its quickbrew systems have developed all year, and it's almost october and past the traditional time for that part of the basin to work, so i'm discounting them until they get much further west. the caribbean and western atlantic are the source regions now.
HF 1733z25september