Random Chaos
(Weather Analyst)
Sun Sep 25 2005 10:33 PM
Re: Rita weakens to a Tropical Depression

While NHC never had it looping back into the gulf, about half the models did. About half the GFS ensemble runs still show that loop back, though all the others have picked up a decidedly eastward trend. There are presently 4 distinct tracks I'm seeing for the remnants of Rita:

1. Loop back to gulf.
2. Stall
3. Move east and out into the Atlantic over SC/NC/southern VA.
4. Move east and up into the New England area over PA.

It seems that the eastward track is panning out, but whether it takes the southerly or northerly one is something we will have to watch. Since I'm stuck between the two eastward tracks, I'm not sure whether either is better than the other. I'm just hoping we get rain from this thing - going on 3 weeks of no rain now.

--RC



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