models are finally collectively showing something that makes sense about the evolution later this week. there are two areas that have development prospects. i'll mention a third just because it would be weird as hell if it came about.
one: the wave in the caribbean. most of the models have it slowing down in the nw caribbean as the environment becomes more favorable. still a goodly bit of shear down there, so this may come about more slowly than shown... but several globals have a system present near/east of the yucatan in 3-5 days. if it develops, like a mexico or maybe south texas thing. more likely mexico, but it may get stuck down there.
two: the wave in the eastern atlantic near 40-45w. this is the system the outlooks have been saying 'could be entering a more favorable environment' for a couple of days now. the environment isn't getting a whole lot more favorable, but it is going west and remaining coherent. several globals don't develop/recurve this thing now, instead getting it stuck near the end of the run over the coming weekend as that early october ridge blocks it off the east coast. now i see where that wave underneath was coming from. if it gets caught, we may have it running at us between florida and the carolinas.
three: remember all the talk about rita coming back to the coast? well, it is in a fashion. the surface system went out like a shot to the ne unexpected by all those models that stalled the system.. but there's still a lot of rain over ms/al. a lot of the mid-level energy did get left behind instead, so the models/forecasts were partially on. it isn't rita, but this vestige does have the slightest chance of moving s and sw into the gulf and redeveloping. some of those earlier forecasts were totally nuts after all.
checked the soi index and its still trending positive with negative interludes. this is a favorable pattern for bursts of atlantic development, that we've had in both july and much of september. the period between october 3rd and 7th or so ought to be a strike window for the east coast, so we aren't rid of threats by any means, even though it's getting later in the season and when we'd more traditionally just look at florida/the caribbean.
HF 1434z26september