Thunderbird12
(Meteorologist)
Tue Sep 27 2005 11:19 AM
Re: watching down the road

They actually did two SHIPS runs around 12Z this morning for the system currently over the Caribbean (99L). One was initialized at 13.6 N, 73.8 W with a initial intensity of 20 knots. The second one (run about 30 minutes later) was given an initial position at 13.7 N, 75.6 W and an initial intensity of 25 knots. Both runs indicated steady strengthening through 120 hours, so it appears that the conditions (at least in the model reality) will be favorable for this system if it can establish itself as a tropical cyclone (jury still out on that, obviously). I don't know if they decided that the system looked stronger and farther west than what they originally thought, or if they were just plugging numbers in to test various scenarios.

They also did a 06Z GFDL run for 99L, but the forecast never even made it to 6 hours before the system was considered to be dissipated, so the GFDL is not impressed yet.

Update: Just read the latest outlook from NHC and they do seem more impressed this morning:

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE CENTERED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES SOUTHEAST
OF JAMAICA IS PRODUCING CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
TODAY... AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE ALSO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM TOMORROW... IF NECESSARY. INTERESTS IN
JAMAICA... THE CAYMAN ISLANDS... AND IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.



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